The forum was the second in a series of gatherings leading up to the public launch in early 2025 of the Institute for America, China, and the Future of Global Affairs at SAIS. Jessica Chen Weiss, who joined the SAIS faculty in July 2024 as the David M. Lampton Professor of China Studies and inaugural director of the institute, organized the forum and opened the event, alongside SAIS Dean James Steinberg.
Over the course of five intensive roundtables, participants engaged in lively and wide-ranging debate on China’s strategic ambitions, technological advancement, economic prospects, military modernization, and decision-making apropos key security dynamics and flashpoints in the region. Deliberations centered on the various policy approaches adopted by, and available to, the United States, and the consequences of each for U.S. vitality and prosperity, and regional and global peace and security.
A more detailed description of the event and list of participants can be found below. The institute wishes to thank the attendees for their time and commitment to wrestling with what are challenging, but essential, questions for U.S. China policy.
I. Chinese Politics and Intentions
What is the range of views and debates inside China that could shape China’s evolving ambitions and plans? To what degree can international pressures and incentives shape China’s trajectory, under the current and future Chinese leadership? What changes in Chinese behavior and/or rhetoric would alter U.S. strategic assessments of Chinese intentions?
II. China’s Technological Advancement and U.S. Leadership
How effective have U.S.-led export controls been at slowing the relative pace of China’s technological advancement? What are the risks and benefits of some degree of continued technological interdependence, across which technologies, including for keeping China dependent and American “eyes and ears” on technological developments within China? How should U.S. strategy optimize the balance between running faster vs. slowing China down, and in which technologies?
III. China’s Economic Challenges, U.S. Interests, and the Global Economy
How would China respond to a new wave of U.S. tariffs and restrictions? What are the implications of China’s domestic economic challenges for Chinese ambitions and capabilities? What leverage do potential international trade restrictions offer, at what cost and potential risk? What level of economic separation or integration should we aim at, given national security concerns?
IV. China’s Nuclear and Military Modernization
What is driving China’s rapid nuclear expansion? What changes in China’s conventional, nuclear, and unconventional capabilities require fundamental reassessments and changes in U.S. military strategy, doctrine, and posture? Given the asymmetries in U.S. and Chinese capabilities, what are realistic prospects for bolstering strategic stability and reducing risk, and over what time frame?
V. Regional Security Dynamics and Potential Flashpoints
How should U.S. planning and strategy adjust for evolving regional dynamics, including in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait? What is the range of views in China over the costs and benefits of a prolonged conflict in Ukraine and growing cooperation between North Korea and Russia? What are the drivers and limits to Beijing’s support for these agents of upheaval?
Emily Blanchard, Associate Professor, Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth College; Former Chief Economist, U.S. Department of State
Ling Chen, William L. Clayton Chair and Associate Professor, Johns Hopkins University SAIS
Daniel Delk, Jr., Senior State Department Doctoral Fellow, Johns Hopkins University SAIS and U.S. Department of State
Rush Doshi, C.V. Starr Senior Fellow for Asia Studies and Director of the China Strategy Initiative, Council on Foreign Relations
Henry Farrell, Stavros Niarchos Foundation Agora Institute Professor of International Affairs, Johns Hopkins University SAIS
Taylor Fravel, Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor of Political Science and Director, Security Studies Program, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Timothy Geithner, Chairman, Warburg Pincus
Richard Haass, Senior Counselor, Centerview Partners LLC; President Emeritus, Council on Foreign Relations
Lyndsay Howard, Senior Foreign Policy Advisor to Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg, Bloomberg LP
Arthur Kroeber, Partner, Gavekal Dragonomics
Matt Kroenig, Vice President and Senior Director, Atlantic Council Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security; Professor of Government and School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Mike Mazarr, Senior Political Scientist and Professor of Policy Analysis, RAND
Chris McGuire, Foreign Affairs Officer, Office of the Special Envoy for Critical and Emerging Technologies, U.S. Department of State; Former Deputy Senior Director for Technology and National Security, National Security Council
Margaret Myers, Director, Asia and Latin America Program, Inter-American Dialogue
Gary Roughead, Admiral, U.S. Navy (Ret.); Robert and Marion Oster Distinguished Military Fellow, Hoover Institution; Former U.S. Navy Chief of Naval Operations; Former Commander, U.S. Pacific and U.S. Atlantic Fleets
David Sacks, Research Fellow for Asia Studies, Council on Foreign Relations
Samm Sacks, Senior Fellow and Research Scholar, Yale Law School Paul Tsai China Center
Susan Shirk, Research Professor and Chair Emeritus, 21st Century China Center, School of Global Policy and Strategy, UC San Diego
James Steinberg, Dean, Johns Hopkins University SAIS
Lawrence Summers, Charles W. Eliot University Professor, Harvard University
Liza Tobin, Senior Director of Research and Analysis for Economy at the Special Competitive Studies Project; Former China Director, National Security Council
Paul Triolo, Partner, China and Technology Lead, DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group
Matt Turpin, Visiting Fellow, Hoover Institution; Senior Councilor, Palantir
Jane Vaynman, Assistant Professor of Strategic Studies, Johns Hopkins University SAIS
Jeremy Wallace, A. Doak Barnett Professor of China Studies, Johns Hopkins University SAIS
Jessica Chen Weiss, David M. Lampton Professor of China Studies, Johns Hopkins University SAIS
Richard Weitz, Senior Fellow and Director, Center for Political-Military Analysis, Hudson Institute
John Yasuda, Associate Professor of Political Science, Johns Hopkins University
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